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Discussion in 'tech' started by Kita, 12 Nov 2015.

  1. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    Basically just another thread for me to geek out about tech. Ho hum.

    This one is focused on my predictions for the future of tech, which up until now I have just sprinkled all over while going on geeky tangents. I thought it would be cool to just make a thread for them, so others can also contribute their predictions and we can discuss them!

    I was spurned to thinking about this after an interviewer asked me if I had any predictions about the future of tech. I wasn't expecting this question, wasn't prepared with a well-thought out predictions (even though I have tons of them knocking about) and gave a very safe, standard prediction that is quite obvious. Here is the gist of what I said (I told them a much more condensed version of this since it was on-the-fly).

    Tablets and smart phones will be replacing all PCs, including laptops. Laptops were a bit transitory, functioning as desktop replacements. When laptops reached a point of being affordable, people quickly flocked to them due to how little space they require and portability, all-in-one ease of setup (no wires or separate peripherals to manage), and the fact they could provide all the needed performance for the average user for a reasonable price. Tablets and smart phones are doing the exact same thing. The average user doesn't need very much processing power, and the tasks they need computers to perform can usually all be accomplished with a tablet. Tablets are even smaller, even more portable, far better battery life, lighter, less expensive, better app/ program integration, and need even less peripherals. For the average personal computer, they will become the new standard. Laptops will become a 'work' related system as they were when they first came out; those bulky systems lugged around and used as a desktop replacement for getting work done. They will sit in a dock most of the time at a desk, but can be moved if the person is traveling, and is easy for a technician to pull out to fix and quickly hook back up. For personal computing, they will become unnecessary to the vast majority of people who will prefer the much more portable tablet for day-to-day systems they can walk around with in their hand. We already are seeing this trend, workplaces filled with people roaming around with their head down tapping on a smart phone, doctors with tablets attached to their arm, and the lonely laptops sitting unused in a dock at an empty desk. PC towers will disappear from the workplace with the exception of terminals, which will be getting very small. Laptops will replace the PC for more hearty yet common workplace computing. PC tower systems will only be seen when heavy computing is needed, such as design studios, CAD stations, or video editing. At home, they will only be for enthusiasts, such as gamers (and even most gamers have been migrating towards laptops with discrete graphics), or people who similarly do video/ design work at home. I predict this will be the norm in about 5 years, as less and less laptops will be sold up until that point and more and more tablets will be sold.



    Now, after that discussion, I thought further about this and my mind added on. Here is a bolder prediction, but one that is inspired along the same vein of thinking.


    In the processor world, two companies have emerged as king; Intel and AMD. They have bought out competitors and added their tech into theirs. Sure, there are some smaller guys who still make chips for manufacturing and smart appliances, but the real innovation and movement is coming from AMD and Intel, so that is where this prediction will focus.

    The IoT (Internet of Things) is the new market emerging. Smart appliances and devices. Currently, most are powered by the little guys who up until now have been making tech for industrial and manufacturing. This will not last. As the devices become more common, the market will demand more features. More features need more power. The little guys won't be able to keep up since their tech is not moved forward by the market, but instead by graduated steps in the industry and specific designs created by engineers for specific devices and uses. So someone will need to step in. And that will be... AMD. Hands down. They are dominating the mobile market, and their technology integrates processing on a single die far better than Intel. Intel has focused on power, pushing tons of processing power out of a chip using as little electricity as possible. The i-series are phenomenal, and have been. An interesting part of them, however, is that despite their efficiency and power, they aren't good at integrating multiple functions. The graphics for on-die with Intel has always sucked compared to a less powerful, less expensive AMD. Every time they move forward with it, AMD is one step ahead. They took a stab with atoms in netbooks, which proved to be too weak for the high cost. I don't think they can compete in that market. They excel in mid to high range processing, and will continue to be the kings of powering laptops and higher. But AMD will be shifting their focus to the explosion of the mobile market, powering every one of those devices, and will be leaping on top of the IoT devices as soon as they graduate from the small-time systems. My prediction is we will see AMD pretty much bowing out of the larger processing market, we won't see them in laptops, desktops, servers, etc. We will see them owning the mobile market and every other device needing the small die that does it all. AMD is the chip that will be in our homes. And Intel will dominate the laptops, desktops, and servers. Their chips will continue to power the enterprise world, and will be the chips that power the world and industry. I think AMD will grow as mobile devices nudge out laptops and desktops, but Intel will stay steady as they gobble up the small market share AMD has in the enterprise world. Intel already has the far stronger foothold in enterprise, and they will just gain total dominance. They will grow at the same steady rate they already do, staying with the times, one step ahead of everyone else in power, allowing them to continue to create the tech that runs enterprise and all large computing systems. I predict we will see this quite plainly in about 10 years, 5 years until the market begins the shift. I think tech is already on the path towards this shift.
     
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  2. nina

    nina still prettier than you
    Nerdy

    i dont think tablets and the like will ever totally replace the pc. there are too many aspects of the pc that cannot be emulated elsewhere.
     
  3. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    Like I said, PCs will still be around for specific uses. But in terms of one in every household? Nope. Average folks with average computing needs just don't need them. They will have a pile of mobile devices, and no PC or laptop in sight. Most folks just won't use them, so they will stop buying them!
     
  4. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    Oh. Also, there will be a minor bidding war for NVidia. Dell and/or HP and/ or Citrix will throw in offers, but won't be willing to pay as much as IBM and Intel. Hell, I think AMD might throw in an offer, but the gain they would get in eliminating potential competition and small gain in technologies probably aren't worth the price, especially since their focus will be shifting away from the areas NVidia has focused. Intel will probably end up with NVidia, unless IBM is looking for a pretty sizable shift in focus to consumer hardware, which is possible. They may want to make a run. I predict they are waiting to grow some more before gobbling up Intel. And Intel is the conpany they want, hands down no question. Still in flux, IBM may be overtaken by Dell or HP, as they are doing quite well. And if Dell or HP end up in IBM's position, they might make a successful run at NVidia, or Intel further down the road.

    Lots of speculation on possibilities, but at this point I predict NVIDIA will continue to lose grip in the market as less laptops and PCs are sold, and AMD dominates the mobile hardware graphics. NVIDIA won't have enough of a place to stand on it’s own any more, and Intel is the obvious choice for buyers. The two have worked closely together for years now in order to keep the edge on AMD. The tactic has worked so far. They have maintained their edge in the consumer hardware market, putting out the best of the best in graphics, best paired with Intel chips (and many times, only working with Intel or vice versa). But, based on earlier predictions of the market shift to mobile, NVIDIA may be the only game in town when talking about high end graphics, but demand will be too low to sustain them as a standalone company focused on it. Intel will want to make a final run at AMD, who themselves purchased Radeon graphics over 10 years ago and became a powerhouse from that deal. Intel's best shot at keeping AMD on their toes and securing their spot as THE hardware for every non-mobile consumer and enterprise device is nabbing NVidia. I honestly do not see this going down any other way, but the potential is there if Intel flounders, in which case the rest of the pack will leap into the fight.

    This will happen in roughly 5 years. 10-15 years down the road, Intel/ NVIDIA may get gobbled up by IBM, with potential for Dell/ HP growing big enough (ESPECIALLY if they merge) to grab them instead and overpower IBM. That will be a more interresting move to watch. NVIDIA going over to Intel is too obvious of a move to be of interest, they are basically partners already.
     
  5. nina

    nina still prettier than you
    Nerdy

    yeah, get that. but people have been saying this for ages. the pc just has too many advantages to overlook. things like an upgrade path, a huge screen, a physical keyboard, etc.
     
  6. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    I just started a temp job at a service desk. Probably around 80 users in the office. 3 PCs. The rest are laptops in docks. No one is allowed to take the laptops outside of the building, and every desk has monitors, keyboard, mouse, and dock. It's just easier to manage. You can get the keyboard, mouse, and huge screen with a laptop or tablet when docked.
     
  7. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    I also thought of the next prediction... names of future Android releases! :p

    Let's see... after Marshmallow will be....
    Nougat
    Oreo
    Pie (Possibly a flavor, such as Pecan, Pumpkin, or Praline) *maybe Parfait or Popsicle. Everyone loves pie! :p They were calling KitKat Key Lime Pie in pie anticipation. ;)
    Quince
    Red Velvet Cake, Rocky Road
    Sherbet, sorbet, or Sundae. Maybe Strudel, but I think they will stick with Sherbet, sorbet, or Sundae. Oooo... S'more would be a good bet too!
    Tiramisu (Thin Mint would be awesome... go Girl Scouts!! :p) or Tapioca. Maybe Twinkie? oooo... Toffee. Rhymes with coffee. Devs will LOVE that!
    U kidding me?? >.<
    Vanilla... something. Ice Cream if they still haven't used an ice cream flavor up to this point and skipped sherbet, sorbet, and sundae
    Whoopie Pie
    X.... ah screw it
    Yogurt, Yoo-hoo,
    Zuchinni Bread!


    Ok, you guys take a stab at this too! :p
     
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  8. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

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  9. nina

    nina still prettier than you
    Nerdy

    i bet it felt good to post that :cool:
    happy to see you again
     
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  10. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    And they are bowing out of the mobile market, letting the king of the market reign.

    http://www.cio.com/article/3063598/...rk-shadow-over-the-rumored-surface-phone.html

    They are keeping the Atom probably as a feeler. Testing the viability in HIGH PERFORMANCE tablets, the surfaces. If/ when Surface fails, and no one tries to follow the same idea (x86 architecture in a tablet) Intel will do away with Atom too. They are not interrested in trying to keep up with ARM when x86 is the core of their strongest tech.

    This means one thing; we will be seeing AMD in Apple soon. They already run every modern video game console for the last two generations, fyi. With no major competition left in their strongest market, they will quickly buy out offerings from Samsung and other diversified tech companies that stuck their hands in mobile chips, while other companies who couldn't keep up will shut down those parts of their company.

    Intel is still around because they are keeping their vision clear and pushing forward only their strongest products. Expect to see their chips continue to be the only choice in Enterprise laptops and PCs, continuing to dominate the enthusiast and high-end market, and running the most powerful supercomputer and high demand systems. They will be in laptops until companies begin folding their laptop offerings. Expect Sony and Toshiba to be amongst the first to bail, and HP, Dell, and Lenovo to fight tooth and nail to keep their Enterprise business while those that have primarily focused on consumer markets crumble. Laptop companies will begin folding in soon, a few years I would say. A few companies will be left, but the less invested will bail. Intel most likely will power them until their true retirement, when virtualization is good enough to make them obsolete. And guess what will be powering the virtualization infrastructure? Yup, Intel. Only choice when only the best will do.

    Just like I said, they don't need the small time market when they write the rules of the high end league they dominate.
     
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  11. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

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  12. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

  13. Lain

    Lain End of line. #resist
    Sneaky

    No more shield tabs?

    Who's going to handle tablet and cellphone gaming now?

    Alienware tablet sounds boss.
     
  14. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    Special GAME OF THRONES edition tonight!!

    HBO announced there will only be two more seasons. Next season will be delayed, because they want to wait for winter in their on-location spot. For me, these two tidbits make it clear as day where this is going. They will play this straight, and nothing surprised me in the last season.

    Potential spoilers ahead!

    This is focused mostly on how next season ends and final season begins. Major plot points. Fill in the blanks with twists and turns, but I expect it to not stray too far from this.

    Final season sees Daenerys on the Iron Throne-- well, what is left of it and Westeros, at least. The war will be brutal, and Cersei, with nothing left to lose except her throne, vows to destroy Westeros before giving it to Daenerys . She destroys what is left of the city and palace, killing as many people, if not more, than Daenerys' army. And Daenerys is trapped because her fleet was decimated by the Iron Isles fleet that flanked them during battle. She may even lose a dragon during the fight. Not Drogon, obviously. Though he may get gravely injured. I imagine there will be some bits of the throne left, but palace in shambles.

    Meanwhile, in the North...

    Winter has arrived, and is moving south. The Wall will be decimated and overrun next season, hence all the filming during Winter. The undead army is unstoppable, sweeping over the land with the harsh winter weather, moving like they were one with the snow and ice. They took Winterfell quite easily, even with Winterfell putting on it's best defense and strongest gathering. They have made it their center of operations as they continue south like a sheet of ice destroying all they touch.

    And, in the South...

    The Horde have never seen winter, living in temperate grasslands. The coming winter from the north scares them, they sense something unnatural. The ships are destroyed, they are unable to return to their homeland. They are pissed and feel completely lost in this new land. They abandon their queen and head south, riding through the warmer lands looting, pillaging, murdering, taking what they want, and doing what they do best. Dorne and Tyrell, in their new alliance, are doing what they can to keep the Horde back and defend Westeros.

    Westeros, as you can see, is a mess.


    Cards on the table to add twists and turns--

    Sam is studying in the library, pulling out ancient tomes and finds out the origins, and how the army was stopped before. Which brings us to...

    Dragons. Obviously. Fire beats ice. DRAGON GLASS kills them. Duh. Sam runs to the city to BEG Daenerys to help him make the Dragon Glass to fight the coming army.

    Red Woman. Wild card. God of Fire. Likewise, her and her priests are being begged to help.

    Bran. He will be one with the Heart trees, watching the present and the past, trying to find answers. The dead army cannot come near a heart tree unless he lets them in again, and he has to be careful. I have a feeling the heart trees are where they were created, where the children stabbed them and turned them into the first undead. Whatever the reason, those trees are significant.

    Jon Snow. This is the war the Red Woman saw, the one with the undead. Fire everywhere, burning them. Jon will lead this greatest final battle to save all of Westeros. And he probably will be on a dragon too, because he is a Targaryen. (Lyanna and Rhaegar's child) ;) We still need a third Dragon rider. Maybe the missing Robert Baratheon bastard will reappear with Targaryen blood? Maybe the kid wasn't Robert's bastard, but is actually Aegon who has been hidden away??) Also, in the books, there is a horn that the Greyjoy king is running around with that can bind a dragon to the user's will. He found it while raiding, and has every intention of using it to steal a dragon. Maybe they will revive this plot point in the show?

    As much as I love Arya, I do not expect her to survive past next season. She will play her part (maybe she will find and bring stone heart back into the story??), and will be the final Stark to die. I know she won't make it, and I STILL will be pissed when she dies. Not much is left of Bran, he is caught in the spirit world. A cripple with a lost spirit, he will not ever come all the way 'back', if at all, in the end. Jon I suspect will die in the final battle. Sansa will be the one to carry on the Starks, cold as the winter that will forge her into a very different person than she began. And she will be the true Stark heir, embodying everything the name stands for.

    Littlefinger. The little shit will shelter a fleeing Cersi after his rejection by Sansa. He gets mean and spiteful over it. Probably will even get the little prince of Arryn to do something really stupid too that gets them all killed. Maybe kicks him and his army out to hide up in his tower castle? Who knows, it's a few cards that can be played. He will cause chaos, but not a solution to the bigger problems. Typical.
     
  15. Lain

    Lain End of line. #resist
    Sneaky

    Idk.

    I heard that show has way too much wiener for my consumption.

    Every time someone mentions it, I want to watch Excalibur.

    Shrug
     
  16. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    The weiner-pocalypse was pretty much just first and second season. Each progressive season chilled out more and more, until the latest season where they mentioned 'cock' more times than they showed it. I can't even recall off the top of my head an instance of weiner for the latest season, though I am sure there was one.

    I suspect everyone will be far too busy in these last two seasons to wag their weiners around. Epic wars with dragons are about to be waged, and zombies are about to kill everything in sight.

    It is what everyone had been waiting for!

    Knowing the internet, I am sure there is a torrent of weiner-free seasons available. You won't miss anything, just some exposition that is easy to figure out without weiner scenes. It is a fun low-fantasy drama. If you have seen the Battlestar Galactica reboot, I think BSG is a Sci-Fi version with the same type of vibe. Political drama, religious zealots, an unstoppable menacing force, a deep and rich history, and no aliens/ magic to take it too deep into their genres, thus keeping them easily accessible to a wide audience.
     
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  17. Lain

    Lain End of line. #resist
    Sneaky

    I dig zombies and dragons. Maybe I'll wiki the summary of the plot, most of which I understand is waiting for the dragons to come, and wiener waggling, and jump in at the good part. ;)

    ETA: I started the BSG reboot, but the plot was predictable and the guy the had playing Baltar Ickes me out.
     
  18. Kita

    Kita Should Update Title

    Baltar = Littlefinger of Game of Thrones (aka, master of weiner and boobs). They are the weasley, self serving punching bags.

    BSG starts to take some twists at some point... I want to say second season? If there is still only one of each core cast member running around, you need to keep watching! It meanders a bit, but comes back in with some serious punches in the final season. I recall being all disgusted by Baltar for a while. They make him pathetic by the end. Not happy with the character or where they took him, and I don't mind villians or flawed people. He was like a punching bag that spouted out insults and grew spikes whenever you hit it. He existed to be someone to hate, and it made him far less human than even the Cylons. They have depth! Plus, Lucy Lawless comes around in.... third season, I believe? *squeeeee*
     

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